On January 4, 2022, the development report of global modern shipping service industry (2020-2021) prepared by Shanghai International Shipping Research Center was released. Compared with the previous report, this report has obvious content and structural adjustment, mainly including the following points: first, it has adjusted the method of trade analysis and paid more attention to the analysis of trade structure and international maritime transport service trade; Second, it enriches the content of cruise industry analysis in the analysis of transportation service industry, and adds the data of the world's top 10 cruise ports; Third, it enriches the content of global logistics service industry analysis, including increasing the data of global logistics service industry market scale change, and enriching the content of logistics service industry in Singapore, Hong Kong, China and other regions; Fourth, the global shipping financial analysis section added data analysis on the fleet size and distribution of major ship owners' mutual insurance associations in the world. The main points of this report are as follows:
1、 Global economic and Trade Development
In 2020, the growth rates of real GDP, nominal GDP and purchasing power parity GDP of the world's major economies showed a downward trend. Different from the three categories of GDP growth of emerging markets and developing economies in 2019, the growth rates of real GDP and purchasing power parity GDP of emerging markets and developing economies in 2020 were better than those of developed economies, However, the nominal GDP growth performance is weaker than that of developed economies, which may be due to the obvious inflation caused by the loose monetary policy adopted by developed economies to avoid economic downturn in 2020.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia and trade friction had a significant impact on the scale of Global trade. In 2020, the scale of global merchandise and service trade declined sharply and showed the following characteristics: after the first decline in 2019, the decline of the commodity trade situation in 2020 was aggravated. Meanwhile, the import performance of developed regions was better than that of developing areas, and the export performance was worse than that of developing areas. Novel coronavirus pneumonia and trade protection were more obvious in service trade, and showed a significant regression. And import, export and developed regions were better than those in developing areas in service trade, which still existed in 2021. The international maritime transport service trade shows a similar trend to the service trade, showing a comprehensive backward trend. In terms of trade structure, the existing pattern of global commodity trade will be further consolidated in 2020, and the scale of trade deficit in developed regions and trade surplus in developing regions and emerging markets will be significantly expanded; Although there has been no significant change in the pattern of Global trade in services, the trend of changing the pattern of trade in services has been further deepened due to the tightening of technology exports in developed regions. Specifically, the scale of trade surplus in developed regions and the scale of trade deficit in developing regions and emerging market economies have further decreased, and the downward trend of trade deficit in the latter two is more obvious. In addition, in terms of international maritime transport service trade, although the economies of the three categories have shrunk, the downward trend of surplus in developed regions is more obvious.
2、 Development of global transportation service industry
ocean shipping. In 2020, the global container shipping volume reached 193 million TEUs, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year; The global dry bulk cargo shipping volume was 5.098 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 4 percentage points year-on-year; The Baltic dry bulk index as a whole showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In 2020, the global shipping capacity will continue to grow, and the capacity of the world's top ten liner ships will reach 20.079 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%; The total market share of the world's top ten liner companies reached 83.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over 83.0% in 2019.
liner. In 2020, the epidemic affected the suspension of cruise ships, and the world's three well-known cruise companies have been in a state of loss during the epidemic. Carnival group, the world's No. 1 super luxury cruise company, suffered a net profit loss of USD 10.236 billion in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 442.34%; The other two major cruise lines, vinoren and Royal Caribbean, also suffered serious losses. In 2020, the net profit of novoren group lost US $4.013 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 531.35%; Royal Caribbean group's net profit loss was US $5.775 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 402.74%. Faced with the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the port revenue has also been reduced dramatically, and the throughput of the eleven largest cruise ports has dropped by 69.4%.
Express transportation. According to the statistics of authoritative institutions, the top five countries in the world in terms of the number of cross-border packages in 2020 are China, the United States, Britain, Germany and France, and China ranks first in the world with absolute quantity advantage; The top five countries in terms of the number of cross-border packages in the world are the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada, with the United States accounting for nearly half.
3、 Development of global logistics service industry
In 2020, the total size of the global logistics market was US $6 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. By the end of 2020, the total revenue of China's logistics industry had reached 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%; There are 10071 transportation service related enterprises in Hong Kong, China, with a year-on-year decrease of 50. Since the statistics of unified standards were available in 2009, it has maintained an overall growth trend. In 2019, there were 12893 logistics enterprises in Singapore, with a year-on-year increase of 28. The largest number of transportation enterprises was land transportation enterprises, followed by water transportation enterprises.
According to the latest statistical ranking of global freight forwarders in 2021, there are 15 enterprises in mainland China and Hong Kong, among which Sinotrans freight forwarders in mainland China and Kerry Logistics in Hong Kong rank in the top 10; Germany has 6 companies on the list, and 3 enterprises have entered the top 10; There are two enterprises in Switzerland on the list, among which Dexun has ranked first in the world for many consecutive years; The United States also has five enterprises on the list, and two enterprises have entered the top ten.
4、 Development of global third party ship management industry
The ranking of the world's top 10 ship management companies changed slightly. In 2020, due to the significant increase in the number of fully managed ships, Wilhelmsen ship management company and OSM maritime from Norway increased by 2 and 1 respectively to 7 and 9, while Hualin ship management in Hong Kong and Thome group in Singapore did not increase or increased too little due to the number of fully managed ships, As a result, the ranking decreased by 1 and 2 respectively.
In 2020, the UK managed 993 ships of 100 tons and above, totaling 41.9 million gross tons. The number and scale decreased significantly compared with that ten years ago, but it is still an important ship management center in the world. According to the data of the Central Bank of Cyprus, the annual ship management revenue in 2020 was 91.4 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, accounting for 4.4% of Cyprus's GDP. In Asia, intercontinental group has become the largest third-party ship management company in mainland China, with more than 150 ships managed and crew dispatched, and more than 2500 crew managed; There are many well-established professional ship management service companies in Hong Kong, China. In 2019, the revenue of Hong Kong shipping agency, ship management and overseas shipping company offices in Hong Kong was HK $7538.00 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; Singapore attracts global ship management enterprises to settle in by virtue of its open free port policy, preferential and transparent tax environment and market-oriented fund incentives. In 2020, the number of ship management enterprises in Singapore reached 117, the same as that in 2019.
5、 Development of global ship brokerage industry
By 2020, Clarkson has 53 offices worldwide with more than 1600 employees. The total revenue in 2020 was US $358 million, an increase of 17.0% over 2016; In 2020, ballima's total revenue was ￡ 121 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%.
According to the 2021 report released by Plimsoll, an international industry research company, 101 of the 207 ship brokerage companies in the UK have strong business momentum, and the ship brokerage industry is generally in a leading position in the world. Singapore also attaches importance to the development of ship brokerage industry. According to the data of Singapore maritime service guide, in 2020, the number of Singapore Ship brokerage companies reached 70, with a year-on-year increase of 11. Among them, world-famous ship brokerage companies such as bailima and Clarkson chose to set up headquarters or regional headquarters in Singapore.
6、 Development of global ship registration industry
In 2020, the world merchant fleet reached 2.07 billion DWT, with a year-on-year increase of 92.48 million dwt. In recent years, with the exception of general cargo ships, all types of ships have increased in deadweight tons. The growth of bulk carriers is particularly rapid. From 2009 to 2020, the share of bulk carriers in the total transport capacity increased from 35.1% to 42.5%, while the share of oil tankers and general cargo ships decreased from 35.1% and 9.1% to 29.0% and 3.7% respectively.
According to the scale of ship registration, Panama still ranks first in the world. In 2020, the cumulative registered fleet was 329 million dwt, an increase of 47.5% over 223 million dwt in 2009, followed by 275 million dwt in Liberia and 262 million dwt in the Marshall Islands. Hong Kong, China and Singapore ranked fourth and fifth.
In terms of gross tonnage, more than 70% of the world's ships choose registered foreign nationality, but among the top 35 ship owners in gross tonnage, 10 countries or regions still have more than 40% of their flag fleets.
7、 Development of global maritime law industry
London is still the most important maritime arbitration place in the world. According to the statistics of the London Maritime Arbitrators Association (LMAA), in 2020, the members of the London Maritime Arbitrators Association received 3010 entrustments, more than any year since 2016, including 523 successful awards, an increase of 58 entrustments and a decrease of 6 awards, occupying an absolute dominant position in the global maritime arbitration market. In other markets, in 2020, the Singapore International Arbitration Center (SIAC) accepted 1080 new cases, exceeding the number of 946 new cases accepted by the ICC arbitration court for the first time; At present, the Paris Maritime Arbitration Court has more than 60 experienced arbitrators. The institutions handling maritime arbitration cases in Paris include the Paris arbitration institution, ICC and the Paris maritime arbitration chamber of Commerce. In 2020, the number of maritime arbitration cases handled by the three institutions was 52, an increase of 9 over the same period of last year; China's maritime arbitration market mainly includes Hong Kong and Shanghai. In 2020, the number of maritime arbitration cases accepted by Shanghai was 342, with a total amount of 2.779 billion yuan. The cases accepted and the total objects of dispute accounted for about 90% of the total business volume of China Maritime Arbitration Commission. The Hong Kong International Arbitration Center (HKIAC) Handled 483 new arbitration cases, about 18.6% of which involved maritime disputes.
8、 Global classification society development
In 2020, the classification fleet of ABS totaled 273 million gross tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%; Det Norske Veritas has a total revenue of NOK 20911 million, equivalent to about 15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%; The number of ships classified by Bureau Veritas was 11456, a total of 131.8 million gross tons, an increase of 62 over last year.
Countries all over the world have signed or joined the memorandum to ensure the effective implementation of port state supervision (PSC). At present, nine memoranda have been formed all over the world. The ship detention data recorded in the port state supervision activities implemented according to the memorandum of understanding can well reflect the performance of the classification society at the business level. For example, the Paris Memorandum of understanding will release a recognized organization (RO) rating data every three years in its latest 2018-2020 rating report, The 12 classification societies with high performance level are American Bureau of shipping, DET Norske Veritas, Lloyd's register of shipping, Japan Maritime Association, Bureau Veritas, Russian classification society, Italian classification society, Korean classification society, China Classification Society, Lloyd's register of shipping of Turkey, Polish classification society and phonenix classification society. Among them, except Lloyd's register of shipping of Turkey and phonenix classification society, others are members of the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS).
9、 Development of global shipping finance industry
The global ship bank credit financing index has been declining since its release in 2008. In 2020, the score of the index was 62, the lowest in history. In 2020, the scale of the shipping portfolio of the world's major ship financing banks continued to decline, totaling US $28.689 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and the decline rate was accelerated compared with 2019.
In 2020, the total premium income of British shipowners' Mutual Insurance Association, Nordic shipowners' Mutual Insurance Association, Japanese shipowners' Mutual Insurance Association and American Shipowners' Mutual Insurance Association was US $2.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.04%, of which the four shipowners' mutual insurance associations accounted for 62.0%, 29.0%, 6.0% and 3.0% respectively. In 2020, the scale of China's freight insurance will surpass the UK again, ranking first in the world; The UK is still a global leader in hull insurance, marine energy insurance and other fields.
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